The Week in Review: 21st-26th April
Trading Performance
Friday marked the close of the swing trade accounts strongest week of April, ending with an unrealised profit of 1.94%, and a realised profit of 1.43%. Positioning remains focussed on UK equities, despite my calls last week for a move into US markets. Once again, this seems to have been the correct decision with the FTSE 100 (FTSE) rallying 3.09% through the week, against the S&P 500’s ($SPX) 2.26% increase. This comes as US equities continue to face headwinds driven by inflation uncertainty, with Friday’s PCE print for March indicating that Fed rate cuts may be further out than analysts expect. This narrative will continue to play into next week, with the Federal Reserves monetary policy meet and interest rate decision on Wednesday, alongside Chair Powell’s Statement.
As noted last week, a total of six trades were carried into Monday at a 0.51% unrealised profit. The initial intention was to begin unravelling positions through Wednesday, in order to shift capital into US equity setups, as investor confidence was restored following last weeks geopolitical scares. However, as mentioned, FTSE momentum was heavily bullish, as the index broke new highs, and closed four out five sessions higher.
Across the six positions, four were focussed on two companies active within the housing sector. The positions experienced a period of heightened volatility through Wednesday and Thursday, which drew my attention to the technical charts. After some basic analysis of price, technical trends, and trade fundamentals I chose to close the trades out on Friday. This locked in moderate profits, shielding the account from the release of two key industry data prints next Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. If data causes any significant price movements to the downside, I may look to re enter positions. However, any noise regarding BOE rate cuts will have an amplified impact upon my direction. Over an eight session holding period, the net profit of these positions was 1.43%.
The account heads into next week with a stronger cash balance and two remaining open positions at an unrealised profit of 1.94%. The focus will remain on UK equities as performances have compliments the strategy over the last month, while US equity setups are placed on the back burner as inflation concerns persist.
What to Watch Next Week:
Monday 29th April
Tuesday 30th April
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI
UK Mortgage Approvals (March)
Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
US Earnings:
Amazon ($AMZN)
Eli Lilly ($LLY)
Coca Cola ($KO)
Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD)
McDonald’s ($MCD)Wednesday 1st May
UK Nationwide HPI
US Interest Rate Decision
FOMC Statement
US Crude Inventories
US Earnings:
Mastercard ($MA)
Pfizer ($PFE)
KKR & Co ($KKR)Thursday 2nd May
US Earnings:
Apple ($AAPL)
Novo Nordisk ($NVO)
Shell PLC ($SHEL)Friday 3rd May
Eurozone Unemployment Rate
US Non-Farm Payroll
US Unemployment Rate
US Earnings:
Berkshire Hathaway Inc ($BRK.A/B)
Sources:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/world-indices/
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/commodities
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100
https://www.binance.com/en-GB/price/bitcoin
https://www.binance.com/en-GB/price/ethereum
https://qontigo.com/index/sxxp/
Stock Market Activity Today & Latest Stock Market Trends | Nasdaq
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#market-cap
https://www.forexfactory.com
Definitions:
YoY - Year on Year, or, Year over Year
MoM - Month on Month, or, Month over Month
QoQ - Quarter on Quarter, or, Quarter over Quarter
ECB - European Central Bank
BOJ - Bank of Japan
Fed - Federal Reserve
BOE - Bank of England
SNB - Swiss National Bank
DOJ - Department of Justice
PnL - Profit and Loss